Tesla Rally Cools as Delivery, Margin Concerns Eclipse Autonomy Hopes

Tesla Stock Pulls Back From Highs as Q4 Delivery Cuts Overshadow Musk Pay Ruling

  • Tesla shares retreated from recent highs as analysts cut fourth-quarter delivery forecasts, citing weaker demand.
  • Reduced delivery expectations point to potential margin pressure, even as longer-term hopes remain tied to autonomy and robotaxi initiatives.
  • The court-ordered reinstatement of CEO Elon Musk’s massive pay package received less investor attention amid short-term risks.

Tesla shares fell back from record levels this week as Wall Street analysts trimmed their fourth-quarter delivery forecasts. The outlook shift follows signs of slowing demand in key markets and coincides with less investor focus on the recent court decision upholding CEO Elon Musk’s pay package.

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Both UBS and Deutsche Bank analysts lowered their expectations for Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter. UBS’s Joseph Spak now projects about 415,000 vehicles, down from the previous estimate of 429,000, citing weaker U.S. demand after the federal electric vehicle tax credit expired in September. In the same period last year, the company delivered over 495,000 vehicles and produced approximately 459,000.

Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu forecasted fourth-quarter deliveries at about 405,000 vehicles, reporting that U.S. and European demand slowed significantly, with a smaller decrease in China. Yu projected that reduced deliveries could bring down automotive gross margin to 14.4%, a drop of 1 percentage point quarter-over-quarter.

While Yu expects pressure in the near term, he maintains a bullish longer-term view, highlighting Tesla’s progress on robotaxis and humanoid robots and raising his price target to $500.

The downgrades arrived just as Delaware’s Supreme Court reinstated Musk’s 2018 stock-based compensation plan, reversing a lower-court decision. The court stated rescinding the award would leave Musk “uncompensated for six years of work” and called full cancellation unfair. The compensation package, valued at about $56 billion, was approved by shareholders in both 2018 and 2024.

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A separate plan approved last November could be worth up to $1 trillion, depending on performance milestones such as earnings growth and vehicle deliveries.

Despite near-term uncertainty, Tesla continues to highlight its focus on autonomy.

On Monday, Musk stated via social media that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology could become available in the United Arab Emirates next month. FSD is currently available only in select countries, with additional approval in Europe targeted for 2026.

Meanwhile, retail investor sentiment on social platforms remained mostly bullish, with some users forecasting a pullback while others see the potential for further gains in the coming months. Tesla’s stock is up 21% for the year so far.

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