- Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned that early production of the Cybercab robotaxi will start slowly and accelerate later along an S-curve.
- An investor claim that mass output could start in under 100 days and reach sub-10-second cycle times prompted clarification.
- Musk noted that both the Cybercab and Optimus robot involve mostly new parts and steps, which will slow initial ramp.
- Tesla says it is testing production now, with the main manufacturing ramp slated to begin in April at its Texas gigafactory.
- The company has begun limited robotaxi deployments and says volume production of the Cybercab and Tesla Semi remains on track for 2026.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk cautioned that initial manufacturing of the Cybercab robotaxi will be slow and will accelerate later, with the main ramp planned to start in April at the company’s Texas gigafactory. He pointed to the large number of new parts and steps as the reason early output will be limited and said the process follows an S-curve.
The clarification followed a post by investor Sawyer Merritt on X that claimed production would begin in less than 100 days using an unboxed process and that cycle times could fall below 10 seconds. Responding, Musk wrote on X that "The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are." He added that because the Cybercab and Optimus are mostly new designs, early production will be "agonizingly slow" before becoming "insanely fast."
Musk previously said in December 2025 that the company is testing the production system now and expects the real ramp to begin in April; that clarification was posted by Musk as well (linked here). At full scale, Musk has said production lines could eventually make one vehicle every 10 seconds.
The Cybercab is a dedicated robotaxi with no pedals, steering wheel, or side-view mirrors. Tesla has already deployed a small fleet of Model Y robotaxis in Austin since June 2025 and has been testing fully autonomous driving in Texas without safety drivers, while planning to add the two-seat Cybercab to its network.
In a year-end recap, the company said it has started production ahead of a planned 2026 launch and listed milestones including cheaper variants of the Model Y and Model 3, a new energy product, and refreshed luxury models. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits was reported as bearish, and the stock is down just over 6% year to date.
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