Strategy’s mNAV Hits 1x as Market Value Matches BTC At risk!

Strategy's enterprise-value mNAV falls to 1x as Enterprise Value matches Bitcoin holdings, ending accretive ATM dilution

  • Strategy disclosed on its homepage that its enterprise multiple-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) has fallen to 1x.
  • During Nasdaq morning trading, MSTR fell to $158.45, pushing Enterprise Value below $63 billion while the company’s Bitcoin holdings are about $62 billion.
  • Archived and social-media screenshots show the company’s publicly displayed mNAV moving from about 1.02x to 1x.
  • The firm’s original market-cap-to-Bitcoin metric was replaced with an Enterprise Value version of mNAV, which has now also reached parity with Bitcoin value.
  • At-the-market (ATM) sales that previously increased Bitcoin per share (accretive dilution) can no longer do so while mNAV is at 1x, limiting options to additional debt, preferred issuances, or seeking higher bids for equity.

Strategy said on its homepage today that its enterprise-value multiple-to-Net Asset Value, known as mNAV, has fallen to 1x. The move follows a November drop when the company’s market capitalization fell below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

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During Nasdaq’s morning session, MSTR fell to $158.45, which sent the company’s Enterprise Value under $63 billion. Enterprise Value is the market value of common and preferred equity plus pro forma net debt, and the company’s Bitcoin holdings are worth about $62 billion. The company’s homepage is linked here: https://www.strategy.com/.

Archived records show the firm’s publicly posted mNAV at about 1.02x earlier this month, according to a Wayback Machine snapshot: https://web.archive.org/web/20260102212753/https://www.strategy.com/. Social-media screenshots within the last 24 hours also captured an mNAV displaying 1x (https://x.com/xiaojuanmaoshe1/status/2008888190569242813 and https://x.com/LuckyXBT__/status/2008616747503603882).

The company introduced an Enterprise Value version of mNAV after removing a simpler market-cap-to-Bitcoin ratio from its site. The original metric divided market capitalization by Bitcoin holdings; the replacement divides Enterprise Value by Bitcoin holdings and is now presented simply as “mNAV.”

The last time Strategy’s Enterprise Value mNAV was this low was March 12, 2023, according to historical charts: https://saylortracker.com/?tab=charts&charts=navPremium. Investor willingness to pay a premium for the stock versus owning spot Bitcoin has fallen to a 33-month low.

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The company has used at-the-market (ATM) sales of MSTR to increase Bitcoin per share, a process called accretive dilution. An ATM is a market offering of shares over time. Accretive dilution means those sales raised Bitcoin holdings per share after accounting for dilution. With mNAV at 1x, ATMs can no longer achieve accretive dilution, leaving management options such as selling more debt, issuing preferred shares (see company debt page: https://www.strategy.com/debt), or seeking higher bids for the equity.

For archived context and related coverage, see the Wayback snapshot above and the social-media records linked earlier.

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