Strategy’s BTC Yield Turns Negative Amid Investor Confidence Drop

Strategy Reports First Negative Bitcoin Yield Since 2020 Amid Declining Investor Confidence and $1.4 Billion Cash Reserve Build-Up

  • Strategy reported a negative BTC Yield for the first time in years, showing a decline in Bitcoin holdings per share.
  • The company’s BTC Yield dropped to -1% in the latest quarter, meaning fewer bitcoins per share than on September 30, 2025.
  • Strategy created a $1.4 billion USD Reserve in cash instead of buying bitcoin, to cover future preferred share dividends.
  • The market premium of MSTR stock over the company’s bitcoin holdings has fallen sharply from over 240% in late 2024 to just 16% recently.
  • Strategy’s market capitalization is now below the value of its bitcoin holdings alone, indicating reduced investor confidence.

Strategy, the bitcoin treasury company led by Michael Saylor, saw its bitcoin (BTC) Yield turn negative in the most recent quarter. This is the first time since 2020 that the metric, which measures the increase in BTC holdings per share of MSTR stock, has fallen below zero. The company now holds less bitcoin per MSTR share than it did at the end of September 2025.

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This quarter’s BTC Yield dropped to -1%, marking a reversal of a positive trend maintained every year since 2020 and quarterly since April 2023. The negative yield comes after Strategy decided to dilute MSTR shares to build a $1.4 billion USD Reserve in cash instead of purchasing additional bitcoin. According to the company’s announcement, this cash reserve is intended to support future dividend payments on its preferred shares.

Previously, the concept of BTC Yield was used to demonstrate how selling MSTR stock at a premium to its net asset value (mNAV) could allow Strategy to buy more bitcoin per share, creating value through what is called “accretive dilution.” However, this quarter’s results reflect declining investor confidence, evidenced by a steady decrease in MSTR’s mNAV premium over its bitcoin holdings since May 2023.

Market data shows investors are currently willing to pay only a 16% premium for Strategy’s enterprise value—including bonds and preferred shares—compared to the bitcoin it holds. This is a significant drop from a premium exceeding 240% in November 2024. Moreover, when excluding bonds and preferred shares, MSTR’s basic mNAV is less than 1x, meaning Strategy’s market capitalization is lower than the value of its bitcoin holdings alone.

This situation highlights a disconnect between the company’s stock price and its bitcoin assets, suggesting diminished trust in management’s strategy. As one analyst on Twitter noted, “The Strategy faithful focus on its BTC mNAV, but that’s misleading. Saylor is issuing $MSTR not at enterprise value, but at market cap.” You can see the full comment here.

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More detailed financial data and company updates can be found in the Q3 2025 earnings presentation and on the official Strategy BTC page here.

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