- Bitcoin rose about 1.5% after a retest of the $86,000 level as traders weighed a possible U.S. government shutdown and upcoming Fed policy decisions.
- Derivatives data show muted bullish demand: the annualized futures premium (basis) was near 5%, below typical bullish levels above 10% (laevitas.ch).
- Options markets price downside protection: the 30-day delta skew (put-call) reached about 12%, signaling higher premiums for puts (laevitas.ch).
- Gold hit a record near $5,100 while the U.S. Dollar Strength Index slipped below 97, reflecting increased demand for safe havens (TradingView).
- Macro risks, including Fed policy, potential Fed intervention, and major tech earnings, are keeping professional traders cautious and may delay Bitcoin reclaiming $93,000.
On Monday, Bitcoin climbed about 1.5% after a weekend retest of $86,000 as markets priced the risk of a U.S. federal government shutdown by Saturday and eyed the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision. Traders also faced a busy week of major tech earnings and the Fed policy meeting, factors that weighed on risk appetite.
Derivatives metrics show limited confidence in sustained upside. The annualized two-month futures premium stood near 5%, a level that barely compensates for longer settlement and is well below the typical bullish threshold above 10%, according to data from laevitas.ch. The 30-day options delta skew reached about 12%, indicating put options trade at a premium as professionals buy downside protection, per laevitas.ch.
Meanwhile, Gold surged to roughly $5,100 for the first time as the U.S. Dollar Strength Index fell below 97, a move tracked by TradingView. Investors have grown more risk-aware after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York signaled possible intervention to support the Japanese yen, an action not seen since 1998.
Five-year U.S. Treasury yields topped peers at about 3.8%, yet markets still price higher U.S. inflation and an eventual softer U.S. monetary stance. With Jerome Powell leaving in April and Donald Trump urging a successor to cut rates, traders see a policy path that may favor traditional assets over crypto in the near term.
Recovery above $93,000 for Bitcoin depends on professional traders regaining conviction, which may take longer as macro shifts and corporate earnings dominate the market this week.
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