- Myriad users lifted the probability of Bitcoin falling to $69,000 from 11.6% last Thursday to 30% today.
- Bitcoin slipped about 6.7% over the past week and trades near $89,000, with short-term sentiment turning bearish.
- Prediction-market pricing moved from 22% to 30% in under 24 hours on the specific market for Bitcoin’s next move.
- Derivatives open interest has held between 240,000 and 265,000 BTC, signaling limited new capital and capped exposure.
- Geopolitical headlines spurred sudden liquidations—$865 million lost in 24 hours and roughly $2 billion culled overall—while Gold has drawn hedge demand away from Bitcoin.
Myriad users shifted odds sharply against Bitcoin this week, increasing the chance it drops to $69,000 from 11.6% last Thursday to 30% today, driven by failed recovery attempts and defensive positioning. The change in market pricing happened within 24 hours on the prediction market for Bitcoin’s next move, while the platform itself is hosted on Myriad’s markets page. Bitcoin has fallen about 6.7% over the past week and is trading around $89,000, according to CoinGecko data.
Since January, Bitcoin showed higher highs and higher lows, reaching $97,000 on January 15, when Myriad users placed an 87% chance on a move to $100,000. Recent volatility intensified after U.S. political headlines about Greenland and tariffs triggered a sharp drop that liquidated about $865 million in positions within 24 hours; a subsequent pause in those plans produced a bounce to $90,000. In total, roughly $2 billion in positions were removed during the swings.
Market participants cite a lack of large-player interest at current levels and broader defensive capital flows as reasons for the choppy price action. “In the short term, Bitcoin’s weakness is driven by a clear absence of interest from large players at current levels,” said Georgii Verbitskii of TYMIO. Derivatives data show aggregated open interest has remained between 240,000 and 265,000 BTC over the past ten days, indicating capped exposure and little fresh capital, according to a snapshot.
“Even strong altcoins are struggling, like Avalanche, which is down roughly 66% since September, despite having worked with major institutions such as JPMorgan and WisdomTree,” said Ryan Li, CEO of Surf. Observers also note that gold has absorbed much hedge demand, leaving Bitcoin out of the preferred safe-haven role for now.
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