- Elon Musk estimates a 10% chance that xAI’s upcoming Grok 5 will achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI).
- Grok 5 will debut in early 2026 with six trillion parameters and advanced video understanding features.
- xAI’s access to real-time data from X (formerly Twitter) is viewed as its main advantage over competitors.
- Tesla claims its self-driving system is four times safer than humans and plans large-scale production of Optimus robots.
- The Tesla AI 5 chip aims to triple performance per watt compared to NVIDIA hardware at about one-tenth the cost.
Elon Musk announced that his AI company, xAI, assigns a 10% probability that its next-generation model, Grok 5, will reach artificial general intelligence (AGI). AGI is defined as an AI system capable of human-level reasoning across all tasks, unlike current models limited to specific functions. The model is expected to launch in the first quarter of 2026 with six trillion parameters and enhanced capabilities in text, image, video, and audio processing.
Musk emphasized that xAI’s key competitive edge comes from its access to real-time data sourced from X (formerly Twitter), which the company acquired for $42 billion in 2022. According to Musk’s statement, “We’ve got the X system, formerly the Twitter system, which is the, by far, the best source of real-time data in the world.” The platform’s data-sharing terms enable xAI to utilize public posts, engagement metrics, and user interactions with Grok to refine its models.
A crucial feature of Grok 5 will be its advanced real-time video understanding, which Musk described as “a really fundamentally important thing” for achieving AGI. The model aims to deliver higher intelligence density per gigabyte compared to earlier iterations.
In addition to AI advancements, Musk shared updates on Tesla’s projects. He claimed Tesla’s full self-driving system is now four times safer than human drivers, based on over 10 billion miles driven. The autonomous driving software is now available to all Tesla customers to enhance safety.
Musk also outlined plans for the mass production of Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robots. He projected production costs could decrease to between $20,000 and $30,000 per unit at a steady-state annual volume of one million units. He envisions a future with 30 billion to 40 billion humanoid robots worldwide.
Lastly, Musk discussed Tesla’s AI 5 chip development, which was streamlined by merging two internal projects. He stated that the chip would offer two to three times better performance per watt than Nvidia hardware at about one-tenth the cost. Musk expressed his motivation as being “unabashedly pro-human,” aiming to extend human consciousness and explore extraterrestrial civilizations.
For more details on Musk’s comments, visit the interview he gave at the Baron Investment Conference.
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