- Investors are focused on when U.S. lawmakers will pass a comprehensive crypto market structure bill and whether quantum computing threatens blockchain security.
- Grayscale expects a bipartisan market-structure law to become effective in 2026, moving crypto toward traditional financial rules.
- Regulatory clarity could make regulated firms more willing to hold digital assets and transact directly on blockchains.
- Concerns about quantum computing are real but seen as unlikely to move asset prices in the near term; long-term upgrades to post-quantum cryptography will be needed.
Grayscale analysts said investors are watching two central questions as 2025 ends: when Washington will deliver a full regulatory framework for digital assets, and whether quantum computing poses an immediate risk to blockchain security. The firm expects a bipartisan crypto market-structure bill to become law in 2026.
Negotiations remain on details, but the analysts say the overall direction favors a traditional financial-market rulebook for crypto. That framework would cover registration and disclosure requirements, clearer classifications of digital assets, and guardrails for insiders. Increased legal clarity could encourage regulated financial services firms to hold digital assets on their balance sheets and to transact more directly on blockchains.
The report describes this shift as the start of a more institutional era for crypto markets. In the analysts’ view, improved rules across the U.S. and possibly other major economies would have practical effects on adoption and market structure. The note also contrasts this near-term policy driver with concerns about quantum computing.
The analysts called quantum computing a legitimate but overstated worry for 2026. They acknowledge that, in theory, sufficiently powerful quantum computers could derive private keys from public keys and enable fraudulent transactions. Define: post-quantum cryptography (encryption designed to resist quantum attacks) and private key (a secret code that authorizes transactions on a blockchain). The firm said most blockchains, including Bitcoin, and much of the digital economy will need to upgrade to post-quantum cryptography over the long run, but those risks are distant and unlikely to affect valuations next year.
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