- Kalshi voided certain prediction market positions concerning Iran‘s Supreme Leader, citing a policy against profiting from death.
- The platform reimbursed affected users fully, using prices from before Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s reported death early Sunday.
- Similar prediction platform Polymarket has recently faced scrutiny over large, timely bets linked to geopolitical strikes and raids.
Prediction market platform Kalshi faced user backlash after voiding positions on its “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader” market following the Iranian leader’s confirmed death early Sunday, according to reports. Co-founder Tarek Mansour stated the platform’s long-standing policy forbids markets directly tied to death, which it enforced using specific rule carveouts.
Consequently, the platform is reimbursing all market fees and will pay traders based on the last-traded price before Khamenei’s demise. Users who entered positions after his death will also be refunded the difference between their entry price and that final pre-death market value.
Mansour explained “We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here.” However, online critics accused Kalshi of unfairly curtailing legitimate user profits despite the clearly stated policy.
Meanwhile, suspicions of insider trading activity continue to surround rival prediction platforms amid global tensions. In February, six traders on Polymarket netted roughly $1 million by betting on a US strike against Iran, with some positions placed just hours before the event, according to Bloomberg.
Furthermore, comments by US President Donald Trump in January about arresting a leaker tied to the Venezuela raid fueled speculation that the individual may have been linked to winning Polymarket bets placed before that operation. These patterns have drawn significant attention from onchain investigators analyzing wallet activity.
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