Fed Rate Cut Fails to Boost Bitcoin; BTC Holds Steady Near $92K

Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid Fed Rate Cut and Weakening Dollar with Bullish and Bearish Signals in Play

  • Bitcoin‘s price remained largely unchanged after Federal Reserve rate cut and hawkish guidance.
  • The U.S. dollar weakened following the Fed meeting, reaching a low unseen since mid-October.
  • Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a countertrend rising channel amid a broader downtrend.
  • The MACD indicator suggests potential bullish momentum, while the dollar’s MACD signals bearish momentum.
  • Resistance levels for Bitcoin lie between $97,000 and $108,000; support is near $80,000 if prices fall below the ascending channel.

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but offered hawkish forward guidance. Despite this, Bitcoin’s price did not significantly react and remained within a small rising channel inside a larger downtrend. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar weakened, with the dollar index dropping to about 98.13 on Thursday, the lowest level since October 17, before rising slightly to 98.36.

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Bitcoin’s daily price chart displays a countertrend mini-rising channel embedded in a broader downtrend. Traders watch for a break above the bearish trendline, which would indicate an end to the downtrend from recent record highs. Conversely, a fall below the ascending channel could reinforce the downtrend and lead to further losses.

The medium-to-long term Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for Bitcoin is close to crossing above zero, signaling potential renewed bullish momentum. At the same time, the dollar index’s MACD has turned negative, suggesting bearish momentum for the dollar. A weaker dollar often benefits risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The Nasdaq index has recovered since November’s decline and currently trades above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), which is generally considered bullish for the crypto market.

If Bitcoin breaks out upwards, key resistance levels to watch lie between approximately $97,000 and $108,000, as identified by these SMAs and the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. However, concerns persist over exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, which have seen limited net inflows—only $219 million since late November—compared to billions in earlier redemptions.

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Moreover, Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq is uneven: it tends to drop more sharply than Nasdaq during declines but only rises modestly when Nasdaq gains. A potential bearish case remains if Bitcoin breaks below the rising channel, exposing support near $80,000.

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