- The US dollar saw weak valuations in 2025 and faces further volatility in 2026.
- Strategists say the DXY index is forming a V-shape and could test levels near 94–95.
- Gert van Lagen warned the index may break a double-top neckline and target sub-95 (tweet).
- Some analysts expect a mid-2026 reversal if new government spending and trade decisions change inflation dynamics (tweet).
- Jane Foley of Rabobank said the dollar may trade in wide, choppy ranges rather than suffer a sharp collapse (Reuters tweet).
The US dollar is set for further volatility in 2026 after a weak 2025, when the currency traded at lower valuations amid tariff policies and heavy US macro activity. Strategists point to technical patterns in the DXY index and to policy choices—such as tariffs and proposed government spending—as key drivers of near‑term moves. Market commentary combines calls for continued weakness with scenarios that could lead to a rebound later in the year.
Gert van Lagen highlighted the technical setup, saying, “The #DXY [1W] appears poised to continue its bearish trajectory after failing to break the December 2023 low for two consecutive weeks. The index is about to break the neckline of the big double top, targeting sub-95.” His comment was shared in a tweet illustrating a potential push toward the mid-90s.
Other market voices expect a different path if policy shifts occur. One analyst noted, “2026 will be the year of the dollar. $DXY is pushing up against its 200dma, and I believe a Supreme Court ruling against tariffs could give it the boost it needs to break out and push higher to 100.” That view was posted in a tweet citing both technical resistance and possible legal outcomes.
Per a report cited by Reuters, Jane Foley of Rabobank expects the dollar to trade in broad, choppy ranges into 2026 rather than continue a steep decline, saying, “We’ve seen the Fed revise up its growth outlook for the US. And of course, we have many of the FOMC members thinking that the impact on inflation from tariffs could be temporary. And that to us suggests that with less disruption and with the market no longer positioned long of the US dollar, we might see the dollar holding its ground quite well. So we tend to favour wide, choppy ranges for, say, EURUSD into 2026 rather than a continued decline in the dollar’s value.”
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