- Reports of China linking its digital RMB to ten ASEAN and six Middle Eastern countries appear to be unverified and likely premature.
- China’s mBridge cross-border payment system has far fewer active participants than reported, making claims of 38% global trade bypassing SWIFT highly theoretical.
- The Bank for International Settlements stepped away from mBridge in November 2024, citing concerns about potential involvement of sanctioned countries.
Reports of China announcing connections between its digital RMB cross-border payment system and multiple ASEAN and Middle Eastern countries cannot be verified through reliable sources, suggesting potential misinformation. While China does participate in the mBridge cross-border payments system that utilizes central bank digital currency (CBDC), the reported scale and reach of these connections appears greatly exaggerated.
The earliest English language report about this extensive ASEAN/Middle East network came from Nigerian outlet Proshare. Their article suggested that “about 38% of global trade could bypass the US dollar dominated SWIFT network” – a claim that significantly overstates current reality.
Why Claims About mBridge Are Overstated
For mBridge to handle 38% of global trade, all central banks and commercial banks in these countries would need full integration with the system. Additionally, these nations would need to conduct all cross-border transactions in local currencies rather than dollars. Currently, the U.S. dollar remains dominant in global trade because it offers optimal foreign exchange rates with the narrowest margins for most countries.
Several Chinese-language articles reporting these connections have been taken down, including one from major news outlet Sina. An original Chinese report was allegedly published on March 17, 2025 – a future date that coincided with a People’s Bank of China visit by former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.
mBridge’s Actual Development Status
mBridge launched as a minimum viable product in June 2024. By November 2024, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) stepped away from the project, with BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens clarifying that the organization could not be involved with sanctioned countries.
At that time, mBridge had only one ASEAN member (Thailand) and four ASEAN observers (Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines). Middle Eastern participation included two members (UAE and Saudi Arabia) and four observers (Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey).
The transition from observer to member requires significant technical integration at both central and commercial bank levels. It’s highly improbable that mBridge expanded from one active ASEAN country to ten and from two Middle Eastern members to six in just five months, supporting the conclusion that recent reports are likely false.
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