- Crypto market bottoms rarely form when most analysts agree on a price floor.
- Bitcoin sentiment on social media is highly negative, with positive comments at a one-month low.
- Recent Bitcoin Price drops coincided with increased mentions of Michael Saylor, who denied selling Bitcoin holdings.
- Large outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs may indicate market bottoms rather than declines.
Market data provider Santiment stated on Saturday that crypto market lows are unlikely to appear when broad consensus exists about a price bottom. This view arose after Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipped below $95,000 amid declines in technology stocks on Friday. Santiment warned to “be cautious when you see a widespread consensus forming about a specific price bottom” and noted that true bottoms often occur when most expect further price falls, as mentioned in their report.
Despite some traders’ calls that the market has bottomed at psychological price points—such as Bitcoin dropping below $100,000—the ratio of positive to negative Bitcoin comments on social media is at its lowest level in over a month. Santiment added that as Bitcoin’s price fell, its social dominance climbed above 40%, reflecting a fearful conversation around the asset. The recent price decrease also triggered a surge in social media mentions of Michael Saylor, chairman of Strategy, with many attributing the drop to his alleged selling.
In an interview with CNBC, Saylor denied reports claiming the company was offloading Bitcoin amid the price dip. Meanwhile, large outflows from U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs could signal market bottoms rather than downturns, according to Santiment. They noted that “large ETF inflows have often marked local price tops, while significant outflows have coincided with market bottoms, suggesting retail panic.” Over the past three trading days, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $1.17 billion in net outflows. On Thursday alone, outflows reached $866 million, marking the second-worst day on record after $1.14 billion outflows on February 25, based on data from Farside.
Notable market figures, including Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee, continue to forecast Bitcoin rallies potentially reaching or exceeding $200,000 by year-end.
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