Popular cryptocurrency analyst, Benjamin Cowen, has pointed out that an in-chain measurement shows that Bitcoin (BTC) will see limited price action for most of this year.
Specifically, Cowen reached his conclusion by studying the “MVRV Z-score” indicator, which compares the realized value of an asset to its market value. The MVRV Z-score analyzes the data between market value and realized value to identify long-term trends as far as the price of Bitcoin is concerned.
After his analysis, Cowen believes that – based on the historical movements of this metric – BTC could theoretically remain within a certain price range at least until 2024 and then begin a sustained upward rally.
“I would argue that what you’re likely to see this year is a bounce back year, where you spend about half the time moving higher and half the time moving lower. In 2018, 2014, 2022, we had about eight or nine red months, but in recovery years that’s split about half and half. And I think you’re likely to see the “MVRV Z-score” do something like that, where it comes back above the zero line, as it is now, and eventually it will probably come back below it. And we’re just spending some time in capitulation,” the seasoned analyst pointed out.
In 2024 we are going for a big rise
After this one year of recovery, Cowen predicts that both the “MVRV Z-score” and the Bitcoin price could rise dramatically in the year leading up to Halving, in which miners’ BTC rewards are halved.
“Once we get to 2024 and the next Halving, ideally we expect a prolonged rally where we will see the MVRV Z-score go to much higher levels. That’s how I see things for this year. It’s more or less a bounce-back year and that’s reflected in the MVRV Z-score.”
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