- Canaccord lowered its projection for Tesla‘s fourth-quarter deliveries to about 427,000 vehicles, down from 470,000 units.
- The firm increased its price target for Tesla shares to $551 and kept a ‘Buy’ rating, signaling confidence in the company’s long-term prospects.
- The adjusted forecast is attributed to a temporary demand slowdown, not a fundamental weakness.
- Tesla’s unique, vertically integrated position in the U.S. electric vehicle market supports the optimistic outlook.
- European sales dropped by 34% year-over-year in November, but emerging markets are showing growing demand for electric vehicles.
Tesla received an updated analysis from Canaccord, which reduced its estimate for the company’s vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter of this year to approximately 427,000 units. This revision from the previous forecast of 470,000 vehicles reflects a notable drop in consumer demand across multiple regions and product lines. Nonetheless, the firm raised its price target for Tesla shares to $551 and maintained a ‘Buy’ recommendation, indicating confidence in the automaker’s ability to navigate current market shifts.
The delivery forecast change is viewed as a short-term challenge rather than a sign of deeper structural issues. According to Canaccord, the recent increase in Tesla stock prices suggests that investors are looking beyond temporary headwinds. The firm expects that there are "constructive developments beneath the surface" contributing to the company’s outlook.
The upcoming expiration of U.S. electric vehicle tax incentives is expected to temporarily dampen demand. However, Canaccord sees this as an opportunity for the market to reset towards a more stable environment. The firm stated that Tesla continues to hold a unique position in the United States as a fully scaled and vertically integrated electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, which supports its strong valuation in the long term.
Discussing concerns raised about door safety, Canaccord analysts stated that Tesla maintains a strong record for vehicle safety standards, calling its cars "among the safest in the world."
In Europe, Tesla reported a 34% year-over-year decline in car sales in November, with 12,130 new vehicles registered in the European Union according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) as seen here (source). Despite the slowdown in Europe, Canaccord pointed to accelerated EV adoption in emerging markets such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil as a sign of Tesla’s long-term growth potential.
In addition, non-core initiatives like the robotaxi program are mentioned as factors that could help bolster sentiment around the stock. Year-to-date, Tesla stock has gained 21%.
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