- Bitwise analyst predicts Bitcoin Price could reach $1 million by 2029, matching Gold‘s market capitalization.
- Base case for Bitcoin‘s 2025 price is $200,000, potentially rising to $500,000 with US government involvement.
- Continued structural inflows from ETFs and wirehouses could extend the current Bitcoin market cycle.
Bitwise’s head of European research has forecast that Bitcoin could reach a $1 million valuation by 2029, driven by increasing institutional adoption that would provide the necessary capital inflows to match gold’s market capitalization.
“Our in-house prediction is $1 million by 2029. So that Bitcoin will match gold’s market cap and total addressable market by 2029,” said André Dragosch during an interview on Cointelegraph’s Chain Reaction X spaces show on April 30.
Currently, gold maintains its position as the world’s largest asset with a valuation exceeding $21.7 trillion. Bitcoin’s market cap stands at approximately $1.9 trillion, ranking it as the seventh-largest global asset, according to data from CompaniesMarketCap.
For the nearer term, Dragosch outlined a “base case” scenario where Bitcoin could reach $200,000 during the 2025 market cycle. However, this figure could potentially surge to $500,000 if the U.S. government begins direct Bitcoin acquisitions, as has been suggested in recent policy discussions.
Government Involvement Could Accelerate Bitcoin’s Rise
The possibility of U.S. government Bitcoin purchases has gained traction after Bo Hines of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets indicated the government is exploring “creative ways” to fund Bitcoin investments. These strategies might include using tariff revenue and reassessing U.S. Treasury gold certificates to create a paper surplus for Bitcoin reserves without selling existing gold holdings.
ETF Success and Institutional Adoption Extending Market Cycle
U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded expectations in their first year, with BlackRock‘s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF becoming the fastest-growing ETF in history.
Dragosch noted that the first year for ETFs is typically the slowest, using gold ETFs as a historical reference. “That alone implies that in the second and third year, we will see growing inflows. In terms of the four-year cycle, [this] implies that this cycle will be prolonged by these structural inflows,” he explained.
Further adoption is expected as U.S. wirehouses begin gaining exposure to Bitcoin and ETFs. These financial institutions, including major banks like Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley, control over $10 trillion in customer assets but have not fully opened their distribution channels to U.S. Bitcoin ETFs.
“Not even half of these wirehouses have opened up their distribution channels to US Bitcoin ETFs,” Dragosch stated, suggesting that their eventual participation could introduce substantial new capital into the Bitcoin ecosystem and potentially extend the current market cycle beyond traditional timeframes.
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