- Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase rather than reaching new all-time highs by June, according to 10x Research’s analysis.
- Short-term indicators suggest a bearish outlook despite the broader crypto community’s optimism about Bitcoin’s future performance.
- Bitcoin is projected to trade within a range of $73,000 to $94,000, similar to its consolidation pattern in 2024.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, suggests Bitcoin could be entering another extended consolidation phase, contradicting widespread predictions of new all-time highs by June. In a market report released on April 14, Thielen expressed skepticism about Bitcoin’s short-term prospects, noting that onchain data indicates "more of a bear market environment than a bullish one."
The analysis points to the Bitcoin stochastic oscillator showing patterns that typically appear during market tops or late-cycle phases rather than early stages of a bull run. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $83,810, up 32.80% over the past 12 months according to CoinMarketCap.
Technical Signals Suggest Market Caution
Thielen’s report highlights a disconnect between short-term signals and longer-term indicators. "Bitcoin is no longer a parabolic ‘Long-Only’ retail-driven market," he said, adding that the cryptocurrency "demands a more sophisticated, finance-oriented approach."
The researcher noted that Bitcoin’s recent rally has been driven by long-term holders seeking diversification rather than the speculative "crypto-bro" activity seen in previous cycles. This changing investor profile contributes to the different market dynamics currently observed.
Potential Repeat of 2024 Consolidation Pattern
Despite cautious optimism, Thielen views Bitcoin as likely to trade within a broad range of $73,000 to $94,000 with a slight upward bias. This would mirror Bitcoin’s behavior in 2024 when it reached an all-time high of $73,679 in March before entering a consolidation phase that lasted until Donald Trump‘s election victory in November.
This outlook contrasts with several prominent analysts who anticipate new all-time highs by June. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten told Cointelegraph in early March that there’s a "more than 50% chance we will see all-time highs before the end of June." Similar predictions have come from Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson and Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts.
Bitcoin’s current all-time high of $109,000 was reached in January shortly before Trump’s inauguration. Whether it will break this record in the coming months remains to be seen, with competing analyses painting different pictures of the cryptocurrency’s short-term trajectory.
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