- Deutsche Bank analysts predict that Bitcoin could share a place with Gold on the Federal Reserve balance sheet by 2030.
- The U.S. government is working on creating a strategic bitcoin reserve after President Donald Trump’s executive order in March.
- Bitcoin has recently experienced volatility, reaching a high of $124,000 before dropping amid market concerns.
- Central banks are increasing gold reserves, and gold prices have hit a record of $3,700 as the U.S. dollar weakens.
- Trump has suggested using bitcoin to help pay off the U.S. national debt, which stands at $35 trillion.
The price of bitcoin has fallen in recent weeks after reaching $124,000 in the previous month, with some market participants expressing fears over a potential “death spiral.” Financial institutions and investors are monitoring shifts in how global reserves may develop as central banks continue to expand their holdings of alternative assets.
Deutsche Bank analysts stated that a $9.5 trillion influx of capital is heading toward bitcoin and crypto markets. They predict the Federal Reserve could add bitcoin to its reserves in the future, placing it at the same level as gold. According to research analyst Marion Laboure, this change could occur by 2030, indicating a shift in central bank reserve strategies.
“While gold has long been the standard alternative, the Trump Administration’s landmark decision to establish a U.S. strategic reserve this past March reignites the argument for central banks to hold bitcoin as a reserve asset,” wrote Laboure in a note seen by CNBC. Laboure added, “We conclude there is room for both gold and bitcoin to coexist on central bank balance sheets by 2030.”
This year, gold’s market value reached $25 trillion, while bitcoin’s surpassed $2.3 trillion. Market experts note that gold hit a new record of $3,700 this week, partly because central banks are buying more gold as the U.S. dollar’s value falls and U.S. trade policies change global finance.
The bitcoin rally gained momentum after Donald Trump won the presidential election in November. His March announcement that the U.S. would form a strategic bitcoin reserve further drove prices up. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the government aims to expand this reserve in a budget-neutral manner.
“Treasury is committed to exploring budget-neutral pathways to acquire more bitcoin to expand the reserve, and to execute on the president’s promise to make the United States the ‘bitcoin superpower of the world,’” Bessent posted to X. He added that forfeited bitcoin collected by the government could form the basis of the new reserve.
Markets remain volatile in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate cut, with another reduction expected soon. Xapo Bank investment head Gadi Chait noted, “Ultimately, for long-term investors, these swings are part of bitcoin’s normal rhythm. Its network remains the most secure, and adoption continues to deepen, both in a retail and institutional sense.”
Deutsche Bank’s analysis highlighted bitcoin’s similarities to gold, with low correlation to other asset classes and its potential as a store of value for central banks. The bank notes that bitcoin could benefit from rising income growth, similar to how gold prices rise when equity markets are strong.
A Federal Reserve research paper in August discussed raising the value of U.S. gold holdings from $11 billion to $750 billion. The paper referenced several countries using higher gold values to boost government finances.
Earlier this month, a top advisor to Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed the U.S. wants to use crypto to decrease its debt and revise the financial system, according to comments posted to X. Last year, Donald Trump suggested in an interview with Fox Business that bitcoin might help pay off the $35 trillion U.S. national debt.
Bitcoin and gold are now viewed by some policymakers as possible alternatives to traditional currency systems, with broader implications for global finance as the U.S. explores new strategies for its reserves.
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