- Bitcoin risks closing the 2025 yearly candle in the red unless it gains 6.24% from the yearly open in the next three days.
- Bitcoin fell about 30% from its October high above $125,000 and formed a local bottom near $80,000 in November.
- The price has traded below the 365-day moving average (a one-year price average) since November, breaking the 2023 uptrend.
- Federal Reserve rate decisions and liquidity remain key factors; only 18.8% of investors expect a January cut per the CME FedWatch tool.
Bitcoin faces a potential yearly close below its 2025 open, with about three days left for a recovery that would require a 6.24% gain above the yearly open near $93,374. According to Nic Puckrin, “3 days for Bitcoin to recover and close up on the year. If not, this will be the first post-halving year we close in the red. 6.24% required to make this a green candle.”
Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $125,000 in October and then dropped about 30%, forming a local bottom around $80,000 in November. This decline followed a broader market crash that reduced crypto prices across the board.
The price has traded below the 365-day moving average (a one-year price average used to show long-term trend) since November, signaling a break of the structural uptrend that began in 2023. A chart of this breakout is available on Binance%3ABTCUSD”>TradingView.
Monetary policy remains a major influence. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times by 25 basis points in 2025, but Jerome Powell warned that *”there is no risk-free path for policy.”* Only 18.8% of investors expect another cut in January, per the CME FedWatch tool.
Analysts remain divided on whether prices will rebound in the days ahead or if declines will continue into 2026. The debate centers on macroeconomic factors and liquidity conditions that historically affect risk assets like Bitcoin.
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