- Bitcoin faces resistance near $116,000, according to Bitfinex analysts.
- Price momentum has slowed since reaching an all-time high of $124,100 on August 14.
- Market divides on how a possible U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut will impact Bitcoin’s price.
- The start of Q4 has historically been a strong period for Bitcoin, with an average return of 85% since 2013.
- Long-term holders remain confident, while recent sellers mainly entered the market in the past six months.
Bitfinex analysts report that Bitcoin is encountering strong resistance near $116,000 and requires renewed upward momentum to break this level. As of publication time, Bitcoin traded at $116,370, based on pricing data from CoinMarketCap.
Momentum for Bitcoin has waned since the cryptocurrency set an all-time high of $124,100 on August 14. According to Bitfinex, recent buyers who entered the market between $108,000 and $116,000 have seen Bitcoin drop below their cost basis.
In a report published on Tuesday, Bitfinex stated, “BTC now trades at the upper edge of the range near $116,000, which remains resistance until decisively reclaimed.” Over the past seven days, Bitcoin registered a 4.34% gain.
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision is a focus for traders. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a 96% probability to a 0.25% rate cut. Some analysts, such as Tom Lee from Fundstrat, believe the first rate reduction of the year could trigger a major move in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices over the next three months. Others, including crypto analyst Ted, suggest Bitcoin could fall to $104,000, or even $92,000, before rebounding to new highs.
Typically, when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, investors may move from traditional assets like bonds into riskier options, like cryptocurrencies. However, analysts caution that any potential price rally could be limited if markets have already expected this change. Currently, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index records a “Neutral” score of 53, indicating a wait-and-see attitude among investors.
Looking ahead, traders are also watching October 1, which marks the beginning of the fourth quarter—historically a strong period for Bitcoin. According to data from CoinGlass, Q4 has produced an average return of over 85% for Bitcoin since 2013.
Despite the recent decline to $107,400 on September 1, Bitfinex analysts note that long-term holders continue to express confidence. Most recent sellers entered between February and May, using the recent bounce to exit profitably, which, according to analysts, has created some resistance to further upward movement.
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