- Bitcoin is trading near $122,000 in Asian markets after reaching a record high of $126,200 earlier this week.
- Analyst Timothy Peterson estimates a 50% chance for Bitcoin to exceed $140,000 by the end of the month, based on ten years of historical data simulations.
- Institutional demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a drop in bitcoin exchange balances to a six-year low are supporting prices.
- Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ether (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA), declined as much as 7% following recent bitcoin profit-taking.
- Analysts note that while accumulation and demand remain strong, investors face uncertainty from the lack of new economic data due to the U.S. government shutdown.
Bitcoin is holding steady around $122,000 in Wednesday’s Asian trading session after reaching an all-time high of $126,200 earlier in the week. Market observers remain alert, with some anticipating a further rise to $140,000 before the month ends.
Economist Timothy Peterson stated that there is a 50% probability of Bitcoin finishing October above $140,000, according to simulations based on data from the past decade. “There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k,” Peterson shared, adding a 43% chance that prices end the month below $136,000.
Since the start of October, BTC has gained nearly 10%. ETF demand has driven the rally, alongside reduced supply as coins leave centralized exchanges. According to recent data, exchange balances have dropped to a six-year low, with just 2.83 million BTC remaining, and 170,000 coins withdrawn in the last month.
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen more than $60 billion in inflows since January 2024 approvals, including $3.2 billion last week—the second-largest weekly intake on record. Trading desks report the trend remains bullish as “Uptober” continues and the S&P 500‘s positive outlook supports the broader crypto market.
Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, said in a Telegram message: “Options markets are pricing in a feral 5% chance for another 10% rally in the SPX into year-end, and it’s increasingly difficult to find a negative catalyst to counteract that view.” He added that minimal short liquidations on recent price jumps suggest many traders hold low-risk positions.
However, some caution remains among analysts. Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, explained: “The crypto market is navigating a delicate balance between strong technical support and significant macroeconomic uncertainty.” He noted that ongoing U.S. government shutdown limits economic data releases, which could hinder new investment decisions. There are concerns that delayed inflation data may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged.
As the market awaits the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and large technology earnings later this month, upcoming data is expected to play a key role in whether BTC moves toward $140,000 or sees a pullback.
In the past 24 hours, BTC pulled back by more than 2% as traders took profits, with related cryptocurrencies like Ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano dropping up to 7%. BNB stood out as the only major coin to post a modest 1.5% gain in the same period.
For more on historical market patterns, see this resource on seasonal patterns of the stock market.
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