- Bitcoin declined 1.5% from Wednesday’s early high, continuing its downtrend.
- The CoinDesk 20 index fell 1.6%, with all members posting losses.
- Market indicators signal oversold conditions, suggesting a possible short-term relief rally.
- Bitcoin derivatives show calm volatility ahead of key U.S. and Japanese economic events.
- Altcoins mostly underperformed, with bitcoin dominance rising above 58%.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a downturn overnight, with bitcoin (BTC) falling 1.5% from its early Wednesday peak of approximately $87,000. The broader market followed this trend, as the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index decreased by 1.6%, with every index member posting losses. This continued a downtrend that began in early October after bitcoin failed to surpass the $94,700 resistance level last week.
To reverse the current bearish trend, bitcoin needs to trade above $95,000 and ideally reach $98,000, though no strong year-end drivers are apparent. The market is currently in “oversold” territory according to the average crypto relative strength index (RSI), which stands at 38.49 out of 100, hinting at the possibility of a short-lived relief rally as referenced in recent RSI data.
In derivatives markets, bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, measured by Volmex’s BVIV, remains below an annualized 50%, signaling calm ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data and the Bank of Japan‘s rate decision on Friday. Bitcoin’s 90-day historical volatility now aligns with that of major tech stocks like Tesla and NVIDIA, reflecting growing market maturation. Long positions on Bitfinex for BTC have reached their highest since February. Open interest in futures tied to most tokens, including BTC and ether (ETH), decreased over the past 24 hours, while tokens such as Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Uniswap (UNI), and Near Protocol (NEAR) saw slight open interest increases. Activity on Deribit points to broad trading expectations, with put options at the $85,000 strike and call options at $95,000 and $100,000 for bitcoin indicating a wide trading range. Both BTC and ETH put options currently carry higher premiums than calls, indicating ongoing downside concerns.
In the altcoin market, bitcoin dominance rose to 58.7% from 57.8% as altcoins continued to weaken against bitcoin pairs. ASTER and TAO were the worst performers among the top 100, declining 6.5% and 6.1% respectively since midnight UTC. ASTER’s drop extends a bearish trend exceeding 20% this week, reflecting diminishing interest in BNB Chain derivatives exchanges. A few altcoins posted gains, including Monero (XMR), which increased by 0.2%, and Cardano’s privacy token, NIGHT, which rose more than 5% in European morning trading. The “altcoin season” indicator remains low at 19 out of 100, showing the market remains focused on bitcoin following October’s liquidation events.
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