- The Bitcoin bull market that started in early 2023 has likely ended.
- An expert predicts bitcoin prices could decline to between $70,000 and $80,000 or lower.
- Bitcoin’s price recently fell from a peak above $126,000 to around $104,000.
- The Elliott Wave theory signals a completed five-wave upward cycle, indicating a bear market phase.
- Put options pricing suggests traders anticipate further downside risks through September 2026.
The bitcoin market, which has seen gains since early 2023, is expected to enter a prolonged downturn. After reaching a high point above $126,000, the digital currency’s price dropped sharply to near $104,000.
Jon Glover, an Elliott Wave analyst and Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, stated that he now foresees a bear market that could last until at least late 2026. He predicts bitcoin will trade between $70,000 and $80,000, representing a drop of more than 35% from current levels near $108,000.
Glover explained, “I firmly believe we have completed the five-wave upward move and are now entering a bear market that may last until at least late 2026.” While he acknowledged a possibility for bitcoin to retest previous highs near $124,000, the broader trend has shifted bearish, with lower prices expected in the coming months.
The Elliott Wave theory, introduced in 1938, interprets market movements as five-wave cycles driven by collective investor psychology. Bitcoin’s recent rise followed such a five-wave pattern starting from under $20,000 in late 2022 and culminating in the early 2024 peak above $126,000. Initially, the fifth wave was expected to reach between $140,000 and $150,000 by the end of the year. However, momentum stalled after bitcoin failed to hold above $125,000.
Glover noted, “Now that we have broken down below $108k, I am ready to make the call… THE BULL RUN IN BITCOIN IS OVER!” This viewpoint echoes bitcoin’s historical cycles of peaking and then entering bear markets roughly 18 months after each halving event. The latest halving took place in April 2024.
Data from Amberdata shows that put options on bitcoin, which provide downside protection, are trading at a premium relative to call options for contracts expiring in September 2026. This suggests that market participants are bracing for an extended period of price declines.
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