- Global economic growth in 2026 is expected to be strong, driven primarily by Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment.
- U.S. GDP is forecast to grow 2.4% year-over-year, supported by business investment, fiscal stimulus, and interest rate cuts.
- China’s economy is projected to grow 4.7% in 2026, exceeding expectations.
- AI-related capital spending is increasing, benefiting sectors like Bitcoin mining due to demand for high-performance computing.
- Markets may face volatility as the full economic impact of AI becomes clear, with emerging markets potentially gaining from monetary easing and low oil prices.
In its 2026 outlook, Bank of America projects robust global growth driven by increases in artificial intelligence (AI) spending. The report anticipates U.S. GDP growth of 2.4% year-over-year by the end of 2026, outpacing consensus estimates. This growth is expected to result from business investment, fiscal stimulus, and recent interest rate reductions. Meanwhile, China’s economy is forecast to expand by 4.7% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
AI investment stands out as a key growth catalyst. Bank of America notes that increased capital expenditures related to AI are already boosting GDP and expects this trend to continue. “We are optimistic on the two most influential economies,” said Candace Browning, head of global research. The bank counters concerns about an AI bubble, stating these fears are overblown. AI-related spending is expected to fuel a new investment cycle in the coming year.
The AI boom has also benefited bitcoin miners in 2025. Rising demand for high-performance computing has increased the value of their infrastructure. Several mining companies have reported revenue growth not only from bitcoin mining but also from leasing data center capacity to AI firms requiring powerful GPUs. Publicly traded miners like IREN, Cipher Mining, and TeraWulf have seen stock increases of over 190% to 337% year-to-date. This occurs despite bitcoin trading around $91,900, without a strong breakout.
Bank of America indicates that economic growth is shifting from being driven by consumption toward capital expenditure, infrastructure, and productivity. This could influence markets including digital infrastructure and blockchain, areas where crypto projects are active.
The bank warns that rising volatility could occur as investors and policymakers better understand AI’s impact on inflation, labor markets, and supply chains. The existing “K-shaped” recovery—where some sectors rapidly advance and others lag—adds complexity. AI may boost productivity in technology and finance while lessening gains in slower sectors, leading to a two-speed economy that challenges traditional management approaches and increases risks of market mispricing.
Emerging markets might see near-term benefits, especially if the U.S. dollar weakens and oil prices remain low. Bank of America highlights that monetary easing and some developing countries’ adoption of digital systems over legacy infrastructure could create opportunities for alternative technologies linked to AI.
The report notes an economic environment supported by two anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and ongoing fiscal stimulus. Copper prices are rising due to supply constraints and fiscal expansion, and S&P earnings are projected to grow 14% despite modest price increases. Whether AI becomes a major engine for productivity or a source of market instability remains a key question. Crypto, particularly infrastructure-focused segments, may play a role, though not centrally at this stage.
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