The ethereum based prediction market has seen some $808,000 betting volumes on one of the biggest current political question: Which party will control the House of Representatives after the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election?
The results (pictured above) strongly sway in favor of Democrats with 61% betting their money on it. Just 36% think Republicans will have a chance of sweeping the House red, while almost no one thinks it will be a tie.
Polls currently have Democrats ahead at 55% to 45%, but money bettors on Augur seem to be even more confident that Trump will lose the House.
Making this one the biggest prediction in Augur’s very young history after it launched just this July as the decentralized betting market seems to be gaining some traction.
Whether the cryptonians will be right remains to be seen, with the hotly contested mid-term election now to be held tomorrow.
Trump and Obama apparently went head to head, with Trump calling a few thousand poor Hondurans “an invasion.”
“This election will decide whether we build on this extraordinary prosperity we have created,” Trump said, arguing Democrats would take “a giant wrecking ball to our economy.”
Obama retorted: “You hear those Republicans brag about how good the economy is, where do you think that started?”
Obama also said: “When you vote you can be a check on bad behavior. When you vote you can choose hope over fear.”
There are quite a few crypto candidates in this election. Other issues might take more precedence, but as crypto-related regulations might be more strategic and long term, we’d argue for voting Crypto First.
Generally, we’d say Trump does need a bit of a check on his rhetorics. The billionaire can himself house and feed the poor Hondurans, so maybe he should open his pockets and perhaps take a leaf from Europe which has done a fine job of lifting up living standards for hundreds of millions of Eastern Europeans.
A marshal plan for Latin America wouldn’t be a bad idea. It worked for Europe. Otherwise poor neighbors are obviously going to pack their bags for a country with a rule of law. Neighbors like Einstein, who was kicked out by Germany to then play an instrumental role in defeating the Nazis through the invention of the atomic bomb.
Imagine if current Einsteins are being kicked out or made to feel like they have to leave ironically to Germany. So the rhetorics does need to tone down a bit.
Democrats, on the other hand, are not great on the economy despite what Obama says. He is now claiming credit for the stock market rise, but in that case then maybe he should explain why his economy has led to no wage growth for the many.
What works well with the electorate is being socially liberal and economically liberal. Supporting the free market while also being inclusive regarding color or gender or nationality or much of everything else.
Currently the choice is one or the other, which may explain why America is so divided and may explain a high level of dissatisfaction with politics in general. Politics that now risks a choice between money and values when the two should be complementary.
So Augur’s prediction may well turn out to be correct as this division might well be reflected in Congress with Democrats potentially to gain control of the House, while Republicans might keep the Senate.
That should turn Washington into the land where nothing is done, which might give some room to this space as things like repealing the Securities Act 1933 or modifying it to be more equitable is a fairly bipartisan issue.
How the composition will change, however, remains to be seen, with the people’s verdict on Trump via the mid-term elections now just hours away.