Ethereum shorts have dropped by some ◊300,000 ($40 million) since December, down now to circa 100,000 eth from slightly above ◊400,000.
That’s while trading volumes have considerably increased to about $5 billion in the past 24 hours, while the market cap of all tokens is now $12.7 billion.
That includes tokens running on eth as well as on other blockchains, but minus Tether, 90% or so of the total tokens market cap is eth based.
That would give eth based tokens a market cap of about $9 billion, or 64% of eth’s $14 billion, up slightly from about 55%-60% presumably primarily because Binance Coin has been on a bull run.
Most of these shorts were opened in November-December when eth fell from about $200 to $80.
Since then, shorts have been falling, with such drop accelerating since mid-February, more than halving shorts in the past few weeks.
Longs, on the other hand, are near all time high. Rising for much of 2018 as bulls perhaps think they will eventually be right.
Now that’s an interesting chart because at least ◊75,000 eth has gone long at a price of circa $600-$800 since April.
Obviously they would have been called or closed you’d think, with the chart quite a bit misleading because 250,000 eth at a price of say $600 is worth quite a bit more in fiat than 500,000 eth at $130.
So it’s at all time high in eth amounts, but that’s probably partly because eth’s price is at near its lowest in now 14 months.
These are Bitfinex’s eth longs and shorts. Much of the “fun” nowadays apparently happens at Bitmex, the unregulated
casino trading platform with 100x margins.
However, they do not provide such data. There are estimates for bitcoin, but we couldn’t find much for eth.
The above seems to suggest the eth and bitcoin longs and shorts are doing the opposite of each other, while Ripple is kind of following eth.
An explanation of that might be that eth traders are seeing what bitcoiners are doing, with any analysis here necessarily complex.
The relatively small rise in bitcoin shorts suggests some have gone bearish, while some bulls have closed. Longs however remain above shorts, so the majority of bitcoin traders are bullish.
An analysis of eth shorts would suggest there are almost no bears left. Presumably few think this will go further down.
So a plain reading suggests bitcoiners are not very sure what way this will go, while ethereans seemingly think it will go up.
There’s been a long period of sidewaying now for months, so the market will eventually say whether that cheeky bear is leaving the stage, or whether he has more showing off.