Cryptocurrencies ready for a third wave?
This is not the time and place for an in-depth lesson on Elliot Wave Theory. There are numerous websites that offer these lessons freely, and often times the teacher is more astute than I in this art. If you are a trader, you owe it to yourself to learn this craft, as it is a great tool that is practical and true. Can you imagine someone calling themselves a chef, but they never learned how to bake bread? Traders should know some things, and Elliot is one of them.
Per Elliot, all markets move in waves of 5. In a bull market there are three waves up, separated by two waves down. The down waves are seen by traders as corrections or consolidations. Wave 3 is typically much larger than either waves 1 or wave 5. Elliot himself said that wave 3’s are often ‘awe-inspiring’.
I mention all this because I am of the opinion that the past few weeks most altcoins were in the early stages (wave 1) of a bull market. Wave 1 (for many) has ended and a wave 2 has commenced. Wave 2 was intense but short-lived. In many cases (imho), Wave 3 has either already commenced, or will commence soon. As insanely profitable as wave 1 was for many traders, the next wave might just be a story we will tell our grandchildren. Stay alert…
I note that XLM has made a series of higher highs and higher lows since it’s large selloff. This suggests that the trend is once again up. It’s cheap and could easily double in the near future.
Ethereum Classic is still being cooped up by a 3rd arc. It will get through it eventually, and we will look at it again when it does. (I see a higher high and a higher low.)
Ethereum turned up sharply and has penetrated the first arc which has stopped it in the past. It has since come back to test support. I would not buy this yet, but wait for a close above the 2nd arc of the pair.
Litecoin is struggling within an arc pair. When it breaks out it will go higher, but it may not get out soon. It could go lower first. This is one to watch, not a buy today, imho.
It is very hard to be bearish about bitcoin. It seems like as long as the altcoins are in bullish territory there will be buyers for bitcoin. BUT it is at an energy point and it is above the last setup, and it is very over-extended. Be very careful if you are leveraged in this coin.
Monero is pushing it’s way through a 4th arc pair. It is likely to get through it, but imho it is a good idea to wait for it. It has “almost” made a higher high and a higher low, but not quite. So watch it carefully.
I see that Ripple, like Monero, has made a higher high and a higher low since it’s selloff. This suggests the trend has turned up again. The target here is 0.3. However, we must be wary of the 3rd arc just above.
Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgment. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.
Jim has an MBA from the University of Southern California. He has had a long career in both Corporate Finance and IT. Along the way he discovered that trading was a vehicle with great promise, but struggled for a long time without a mentor. After having been knocked down many times and having struggled to get back up, he had an epiphany and realized that geometry was a solution. He shares his experience here.
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